Okay, I resisted doing this, because who the hell wants to read about what I think about the political and economic situation we are in right now? The title of the blog is Nancy on Wine. When people want to read about wine, they want to forget about the crap going on in the news. They sure as hell don't want to read about my political slants and what I think of the economy and my whinings.
Well, I dunno! I think they don't. But what do I know? I seem to like to read about other bloggers take on the situation, and I even want to know what others in the wine biz think about the situation.
So maybe people do want to know! Who knows?
But I decided to write this rambly post because..... I feel like it. It's my blog and it actually doesn't matter to me if no one reads it because I like to write. It is cathartic and releasing and it gives me a record of some of the things I have done.
But I don't want it to be diary. I want it to be about wine.
Okay - so what? Get to the point.
Okay, my point of the day is: why is it such a shock that we are in a recession?
My feeling is that the people in the wine business saw this last year - a year ago, when, in October 2007, the stock market hit a new high. My boss was in Europe and I remember feeling bad because the Euro was at an all time new high against the dollar and we were all feeling pessimisstic about that because (a) we love to travel to Europe and we don't want it to get more expensive than it already is and (b) we are hooked on European wine - read: Champagne, all French wine, all German wine, all Italian wine et. al. We were already WORRIED in October 2007, about a possibly lackluster Christmas season, our low dollar, how to make it through.
Now, a full year later, the news keeps saying "We are at a high risk of recession." What? We were in a recession for the past year or more! Keep up, people! Stop being shocked by "Oh my God, factory production is down, consumer spending is down, unemployment is up...... Wow." No wow, this stuff has been happening well before the stock market grabbed its bear market and took everyone down with it!
Look ahead. Do not look behind. The recession is a result of what has been happening in the past 5 years. Look at what we are doing now. New president coming. Government finally helping banks. Our dollar is up against the Euro. Oil and gas prices are down. These are great indicators. The market is not responding yet. It is still in a hole from the crap that went down in the past. But look ahead. The market WILL respond. And when the tide turns, and the poor consumer finally gets his/her break, he/she will be ready to buy and go out to eat and travel and fulfill all those pent-up desires.
That time will come. Look up and look ahead. Things will be good, very good, in the near future - that is my prediction.